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comfysocks 1 days ago [-]
There are many possible futures, but the one that will come to pass is the one we collectively allow to happen. To a degree, of course.
A future that I like to imagine is one where LLM scaling laws hit a plateau. Plateau-level LLMs become commodities. They get distilled into small sizes. Everybody can have plateau-level local LLMs. People discover that it’s better to be a local-powered independent centaur than to be a reverse centaur for a mega-corp.
potsandpans 3 hours ago [-]
Greater wealth inequality. More authoritarian policies as climate refugees from the global south put pressure on classically liberal governments.
Less freedom of movement. Most of the Western world living in a surveillance state.
Climate breakdown manifesting itself with bigger and more frequent wildfires, floods and hurricanes. Potentially the first sign of the AMOC collapse.
An economy begining to become untethered from labor. Feudal conditions from a rent seeking class of supranational corporations . Social stratification across ownership: most people don't own anything at all.
14 hours ago [-]
theflyinghorse 1 days ago [-]
In the West, decline of living standards and continued decay of institutions. Probably very few organizations actually benefit from LLMs, mostly bankers.
Elsewhere? who knows
davidingalls 21 hours ago [-]
But what if a decentrilized internet came along that offerd 90/10 split 90% gos to user (,node) and 10% gos to upkeep and maintenance of decentrilized Internet. That alone would change the dynamics of all industrys.
lemonademan 1 days ago [-]
I believe there will be a massive shift from a lot of white-collar jobs to blue-collar jobs, as these jobs will be the ones most affected by AI. I believe Western countries will be poorer than they are now, and countries in Asia and Africa will become richer as more money will flow into their manufacturing and Agricultural industries.
bilsbie 1 days ago [-]
Maybe more service oriented than blue collar.
AznHisoka 2 days ago [-]
I predict that most predictions in this thread will be wrong. Other than that, who the heck knows?
ejhooooon 12 hours ago [-]
I second that. Even in 3 to 5 months who knows.
msalsas 1 days ago [-]
LLM's will be confidently wrong at a much higher token-per-second rate
jschveibinz 2 days ago [-]
You can predict by using one of several techniques:
1. Naive prediction: it will be similar to now
2. Linear regression: look at several parameters associated with LLM (speed, quality, accuracy, etc.) and create linear regressions from these parameters
2a. Polynomial regression: same as above, but fit a polynomial
3. Group prediction: select 20 friends, ask them to make predictions, then find the average(s)
...and many more with increasing levels of complexity
mknud 1 days ago [-]
I predict that the world would be better for the Scandinavian countries. All other countries - I have no idea.
And for LLM & AI, I predict that the tech bros overestimate the pace of change, while the average joe underestimate the new capabilities.
A future that I like to imagine is one where LLM scaling laws hit a plateau. Plateau-level LLMs become commodities. They get distilled into small sizes. Everybody can have plateau-level local LLMs. People discover that it’s better to be a local-powered independent centaur than to be a reverse centaur for a mega-corp.
Less freedom of movement. Most of the Western world living in a surveillance state.
Climate breakdown manifesting itself with bigger and more frequent wildfires, floods and hurricanes. Potentially the first sign of the AMOC collapse.
An economy begining to become untethered from labor. Feudal conditions from a rent seeking class of supranational corporations . Social stratification across ownership: most people don't own anything at all.
Elsewhere? who knows
1. Naive prediction: it will be similar to now
2. Linear regression: look at several parameters associated with LLM (speed, quality, accuracy, etc.) and create linear regressions from these parameters
2a. Polynomial regression: same as above, but fit a polynomial
3. Group prediction: select 20 friends, ask them to make predictions, then find the average(s)
...and many more with increasing levels of complexity
And for LLM & AI, I predict that the tech bros overestimate the pace of change, while the average joe underestimate the new capabilities.